The discussion explored the selection of risk analysis evaluation methods and the establishment of evaluation models.
The modernization of petrochemical production has potential dangers such as fire and explosion poisoning. These dangers will turn into accidents under certain conditions, cause certain losses to peopleâ€™s lives and state property, and even cause catastrophic damage to the societyâ€™s books. Therefore, scientific methods are used to predict the possible occurrence of cattle in production. It is extremely important to profoundly expose hidden accidents and prevent major accidents from happening.
2 Evaluation Method Analysis At present, there are many evaluation methods developed at home and abroad. Each evaluation method has its own advantages, disadvantages, and adaptability. For specific and price-based methods, it is necessary to choose an appropriate method to achieve good evaluation results. Before selecting an evaluation method, the following factors should be considered.
2.1 Determine the purpose of system safety analysis and assessment Identify and identify hazards through risk assessment; classify hazards and analyze the impact of risk factors on systems and subsystems to establish the status and impact of hazards in system safety The price of the hazardous source that has a greater impact on the system is made progressive, and the hazard level of the hazard source and the system's hazard level are determined.
By formulating risk abatement measures, the degree of impact of hazards on the system will be reduced, thereby reducing the system's hazard level; the type of systemic accidents with high risks will be analyzed progressively to seek ways to reduce the risks and control them within an acceptable range. Limits on safety evaluation technology research inside and outside the chamber.
As well as the current actual situation of Fushun Petrochemical Branch, in the selection of evaluation methods, the qualitative method is still mainly selected from the methods described in 1.
2.2 Determine the content of the risk assessment and the life cycle of the target system include planning, research, design, manufacture, installation and operation. Retired leader; + The same phase, the contents and methods of evaluation are very different. If each analysis and evaluation method is adapted to different stages. Therefore, the evaluation stage and content must be decided according to the purpose of evaluation. For example, it is necessary to investigate the risk factors at the current stage of the installation and develop control measures through risk assessment. In this way, you can select the evaluation method that is suitable for the normal operation. In practice, a normal operation of the workshop can not be kind state. It is possible that this towel. Redundancy is in operation, and another unit is being overhauled and modified. Therefore, considering such factors, different evaluation contents should be determined for each stage of the system.
The evaluation of each system, for example, a device, takes into consideration the safety operation of the production operation facility, etc., and the method adopted for each object, the method for considering the construction operation, and the method. Therefore, when selecting the evaluation method, factors such as the evaluation objective evaluation stage and the evaluation object should be considered.
2.3 Analysis and Evaluation Methods Selection The evaluation methods for the evaluation and the object selection are compared with those of Saiyi 1 . , Optional type name Appraisal target Applicable scope Manpower and time Application condition Effect Experience systematic inspection Excluding Hazard Harmful factor analysis Security level According to pre-established standard requirements Standard score Evaluation of security level Design of each type of system Test board Operation management Accident investigation The most economical sound Prior preparation of inspection Qualitative, detectable and non-conforming procedures Pre-hazard analysis Hazardous factor analysis Hazard level discussion Analysis system Existent hazards Harmful factors Trigger conditions Accident type assessment Hazard level Various types of system design Twelve technicians before production and maintenance, time familiarity with proficiency level evaluation personnel, knowledgeable and practical experience, risk assessment for design consideration, chemical index assessment method, fire and explosion risk, accident loss, material process Danger Calculate the fire explosion index. Determine the system risk before and after taking measures, and calculate the system loss scope and unit destruction factor loss. Production and storage processing. Explosion-explosive chemistry. Virulent and toxic substances Skilled technicians Complete 23 units per week + Practice and master methods. Good judgment ability, qualitative and quantitative corporate economic loss target value, can be set to the factory unit unit risk level Graham Kimney risk level According to the provisions of the system, the possibility of accidental exposure of the system, the degree of risk assigned, Calculate 12 technicians who have assessed the various types of hazardous production conditions. The time is familiar with the system with proficiency assessment personnel. There is a wealth of knowledge and practical experience to assess the risk level of system accidents. Anatomical analysis of the type of failure and impact analysis. Column Analysis System Unit Element Failure Type Failure Cause Failure Impact Assessment Impact Degree Level Mechanical Electrical System Local Process, Accident Analysis Familiar with Equipment Failure Types 2, 3 Persons, Analytical Evaluation Personnel Everyone is familiar with the system, has rich knowledge and practical experience Qualitative and Can improve quantitatively, find step Types of failures affecting the risk of recurrences Drugs can be manipulated Deviations and their causes After the impact on the system Analyze the possible deviations of the system Poultry deviation Causes and influences on multiple systems Safety analysis of thermal systems in chemical systems Professionals form a team, analyze 1 process or equipment needs 3 Evaluators familiar with the system, have rich knowledge and practical experience Qualitative and can find new hazards Logic derivation Event Tree Analysis Accident trigger conditions Accident probability induction From the initial event judgment system Causes and Conditions of the Incident: Probability of each event Calculation system Incident probability Various types of local processes Process Equipment Equipment Accident Analysis 24 people Group Small units require 36 days, large non-needs need 24 weeks Familiarity with system factors Causality between each event Probability of each event The data is simple and easy to use, subject to the analysis of the evaluation staff subject matter, the accident tree analysis of the cause of accident accident probability deduction method, from the accident and the basic event logic to infer the cause of the accident, the probability of the basic event calculation of the probability of accidents nuclear power technology equipment and other complex system accident analysis Professional team consisting of small pixels The 1 day proficiency mastering method is linked to the basic events of the accident. There are basic event probability data which can be qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. It is possible to find out the reasoning methods that have not been estimated in advance and enter the suitability of Fuyang as a system state object as the selection evaluation method. Based on considerations from the three aspects of production and operation facility operation and construction, the Fuhua Petrochemical Subsidiary of Fuhua Petrochemical Branch is a medium and medium-sized chemical plant and a collection, transportation, storage and transportation company of oil products. Most of the raw materials used in the production process are flammable, combustible and toxic substances.
Once the material is released on the evening, it will burn and explode, causing a huge disaster. The assessment of the fire and explosion index is the price of the process device and the contained materials, which can reflect the degree of inherent danger in the chemical production process, and the fire and explosion index and possible property loss of the evaluation unit are obtained through the compensation of security measures, so as to determine the unitâ€™s The degree of danger level provides a basis for adopting safety measures. 2 Types of failures and influence analysis The types of failures and impact analysis are based on the severability of the system. According to the depth of actual needs analysis, the system is divided and then analyzed one by one! Possible type of failure. Find out the corresponding preventive measures for various faults and mention the safety of the system. In practical applications, in accordance with the evaluation of 1, first, the factory is used as an object system, and each bucket of the plant is called. Production 1 systems such as production operation systems, utility systems, production support systems, storage and transportation systems, etc., analyze the impact of the failure types of these subsystems on the entire plant, and then decompose the progress of each subsystem into the workshop. The factory is the target system. It is intended to determine what kind of damage the plant caused to the failure of each subsystem, so as to determine the impact of the subsystem on the factory. The focus is on the workshop or device as a system for discussion. The sheep analyzes the effect of the type of failure of the various components that make up the device on the neighboring component devices to determine the status and risk of the unit in the system. Power management provides the basis for decision making.
The hazards of a simple four-industry operation with a hazardous environment should be the product of three factors. These three factors are the probability of an accident or dangerous event; the time when a person appears in a dangerous environment; and an accident occurs. The possible result after 0, 1 is bigger, the greater the danger of the job is, should take measures immediately by deciding what people make 1. Otherwise, splash water may be born.
The accident tree analysis method in the 4 plant old tree method safety system project is a logical method of predicting and preventing the most effective method of scientific analysis. It uses logical reasoning to find out all the basic factors that lead to the accident's anticipation and happen. Reasons, and in accordance with the order of precedence and causality to draw a box called logic gates, which can concise and vivid description of causality.
To sum up, it is impossible for a system to use a single evaluation method to completely evaluate it. Only the use of several evaluation methods to evaluate the same evaluation object, mutual supplemental comprehensive analysis of mutual verification, in order to improve the accuracy of the evaluation results.
3 Establish an evaluation model Consider the company's different equipment or system of risk differences, divided into production and assembly of auxiliary production into the public engineering system of all transport construction operations 4 Fang he, the selection of chemical fire and explosion index method seven version of the accident tree analysis method, The methods are combined and evaluated separately.
3.1 Division of Units 3.1.1 Process fluency of equipment According to the characteristics of each process of the plant, the unit of process fluency is divided into units, such as catalytic cracking units, divided into raw material storage units, reaction units, and saturated absorption units. . Refinement Unit Product Storage Unit Transportation Loading Area Catalyst Treatment Area By-product Treatment Area Waste Treatment Area The main piping bridge and other public system areas of the installation area.
3.1.2 According to the layout of the separate plan to separate a safe distance firewall Fire Drain Belt and other devices and other parts of the installation of perspiration can be used as a unit.
In the storage area, the storage space of the tank in the fireproof building of a fire wall with a fire wall is usually used as a unit.
3.1.3 divided according to process conditions according to the operating temperature and pressure range, divided into different units; according to the normal operation of the addition of unloading unloading touch agent maintenance and other division of different operating conditions.
3.1.4 According to the potential chemical energy of hazardous substances stored in the storage and storage of hazardous substances in a storage area, different hazardous materials can be stored in different units. The minimum amount of combustibles and explosives in the evaluation unit is 2 2 The dangerous substances in the pilot test ç¬®7 are from the low enthalpy to 4541. 3.1.5 According to the degree of accidental loss or danger, the key equipment that can cause the huge loss and damage caused by the large range of shutdowns is taken as a unit; the risk is high and The capital density is the domain of human beings. The unit with extremely high risk is used as a unit; units with similar potential are combined into one big unit.
4 Conclusion The risk assessment model chosen can basically be applied to the Fushun Petrochemical Company's extensive production facilities, complex processes, and wide operating risks. It also considers the adequacy of exceptions such as normal operation and maintenance, but this is only part of risk management. Risk identification and evaluation is a complicated and long-term task. It needs to be regularly summarized according to specific production practices, evaluated multiple times, constantly adjusted, and continuously improved to minimize risks and reduce risks to an affordable range. Inside, ensure the safe operation of the production device.
1! School supplies. 1. The risk of the process is divided into kg. Ten Chemical Industry 1 Edition 2 Wu Zongzhi, Gao Jindong, Zhang Xingkai. Industrial hazard identification and evaluation. Beijing Meteorological Press, 2000